COULD IT BE? – AT 7:19 P.M. ET:  Dick Morris is possibly the most visible political analyst around.  He generally knows his stuff, and is making a very sweeping prediction about November:

HARRISBURG, Pa.—The man considered one of the premier sculptors of Bill’s Clinton’s re-election in 1996 predicted Friday night that Republicans would take control of the Senate and the House in mid-term elections this fall.

Noting that he keeps reading quotes from GOP leaders such as Republican National Chairman Michael Steele that they are “optimistic” about the elections this fall, Dick Morris told a packed dinner at the Pennsylvania Leadership Council: “I’ve got news—it’s not even going to be close, guys.”

And...

“Republicans will win the Senate with 52 or 53 seats,” Morris said without hesitation, “and the House will go Republican by 10 to 20 seats.”

COMMENT:  That's a tall order, and Morris's prediction places him as the most optimistic, from the GOP standpoint, of those risking predictions.

Morris's record is mixed.  After all, he wrote a book predicting that the 2008 presidential race would be between Condi Rice and Hillary Clinton.  His argument this time is more persuasive, but I remain unconvinced that the GOP can do as well as he predicts.  He may be underestimating the power, diminished but still great, of the major media to twist events to Obama's favor, and the Democrats' own political machine.

Stuart Rothenberg, another respected analyst, will go so far as to say that major Republican gains in the house are "inevitable," but won't venture numbers beyond this:  "At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible."  It will take a gain of 39, as of now, to flip control of the House.

Tough.  But we can dream, can't we?  

April 17, 2010